Thursday, April 24, 2008

MN-Sen: Novak: Franken wins if Obama the nominee

This analysis by the Prince of Darkness pretty much applies to any race west of the Mississippi:

This race, more than most, will come down to turnout. The two men who could drive turnout are Obama and Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who squeaked by to reelection in 2006. If Pawlenty is McCain's running mate, that might motivate otherwise depressed or apathetic Republicans. If Obama is the nominee, his huge bloc of support here (he beat Clinton 2-to-1 in the primary) could push [Al] Franken over the top. If Clinton is the nominee, however, it could have the opposite effect—energizing Republicans and depressing Obama's backers.

And in some races east of the Mississippi as well.

Kentucky-3: Of the freshmen Democrats who won GOP-held seats in 2006, Rep. John Yarmuth (D) has one of the toughest opponents, but he also has played his hand well [...]

Yarmuth has not upset his base or the swing voters who elected him, and he is a likable politician. While he won't have the same wind at his back he did in 2006, he will benefit from the presidential race if Obama is the nominee, driving the black turnout in the district and the liberal turnout at University of Louisville.

How many down-ballot races would Hillary Clinton have a similar effect? Any at all?


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